No one can do without digital tools anymore. Life in today’s society has become impossible without them. Whether you use your smartphone to send a message, gather information, take a photo, or join a meeting: of the more than eight billion people on earth, two-thirds owned a smartphone in 2023, which is used daily, often for hours on end. These smartphones, supported by the internet and now supplemented by AI, have created a global pseudo-neurological network that connects everything to everything else: a hyperconnected network. People, businesses, and increasingly, devices act as sensors—input/output points that either add or absorb information. Over the traditional physical world, a digital web has been woven, controlling the underlying physical layer via the millions of IT systems used by companies, governments, and citizens. Ordinary citizens, and governments alike, are beginning to lose their grip on this vast digital web, which no one can fully oversee, as it has millions, if not billions, of branches into every sector of the global society. There is a real risk of a digital black hole emerging, wherein a small number of Big Tech companies, criminal groups, or states take control of (large parts of) the increasingly dominant digital world. An Analysis.
Oversight of Technology Companies. As has been argued multiple times, most recently by Marietje Schaake in The Tech Coup, there must be regulation and oversight of the digital world. The internet and social media should be viewed as digital services for citizens and organisations. Perhaps the term digital utilities is therefore the right designation for social media companies. After all, nobody can live without these services anymore, but as a user, you have no idea of your rights, possibilities, or obligations. Let alone knowing anything about the quality of the service, for example, the information provided. They provide essential services to people and businesses, seemingly without any government monitoring or overseeing their actions. Just like electricity and telecommunications companies, paying a basic fee for the use of digital services—against which rights can then be claimed—may be the most appropriate route towards fair regulation and oversight.
Big Tech is Taking Over More Services. However, nothing is happening as of now, particularly not on the political front, and the digital infrastructure is only growing stronger and more powerful, especially now that AI has become part of its service package. As Big Tech provides more services to society, the digital web effectively takes over the governance of society. Governments worldwide are entirely dependent on a handful of Big Tech companies for their digital services. The same applies to many companies, semi-public organisations, and certainly citizens. And now that AI systems threaten to render millions of jobs obsolete, Big Tech companies are becoming even more dominant. To make matters worse, most of these companies are based in the superpowers of China and the US.
Who Controls AI, Controls the World. It is no coincidence that we are witnessing a struggle between China and the US over the latest technology and AI. The now well-known statement is: Who controls AI, controls the world. In other words: the winner takes all. Even Putin recently made a similar comment. In the coming years, we can therefore expect fierce battles, not only between China and the US but also between Big Tech companies and governments, as the main question looms: who will gain supremacy in the digital world through AI?
The Stack. The outcome of these battles surrounding technology and AI remains uncertain for now. After all, modern technology is not created or developed in just one place. In the IT world, the term the stack is used to indicate that developments occur at every layer of a system. These developments do not take place in just one factory, company, or even a single country. As everyone knows, IT technology consists of hardware (the device) and software (the programmes or apps). The hardware itself, however, comprises thousands of components, from chips to wiring, screens to batteries, and so on. These thousands of components are produced in hundreds of factories in different countries. All those manufacturers need raw materials for the fabrication of components, which are mined in various countries. Regarding software, international teams often collaborate via video conferences to discuss and create parts of the software. It becomes nearly impossible to identify which country has produced the software or hardware. In short, every complex technological product (the same applies to cars, aeroplanes, etc.) consists of millions of parts, including software components, which are made in thousands of locations across hundreds of countries. This complexity places Big Tech companies, acting as conductors in this intricate IT game, in a strong position of power against governments. Big Tech also has a commercial interest in a global market and not in markets separated by superpowers.
The Position of Superpowers Is Crumbling. This also means that neither China nor the US can easily claim dominance through AI. Controlling all layers of the stack is even impossible for superpowers like China or the US. It is no longer feasible for a country to withdraw into an autarkic system, as was still relatively common in the past, before industrial development, and as Russia is currently experiencing due to sanctions and the exodus of knowledge. Every superpower, and certainly every country, is dependent on other countries. The sovereignty so desired by populists has become an illusion. Globalisation is a fact, a necessity, and it cannot be reversed without triggering economic collapse. Whatever China or the US do, they will remain dependent on other countries and Big Tech companies, whether it is for raw materials, highly advanced technology, or rare knowledge.
The physical world and the digital world. Due to the dependencies within the stack, the developing digital world, with its digital order, will most likely take on the characteristics of one vast, intertwined, hyperconnected network. In this network, literally everything and everyone cooperates to maintain ‘the stack’ in its various forms. In contrast, the classical, physical world will probably for the time being retain its current characteristic of a largely fragmented world, with two dominant geopolitical clusters. The digital world, with its own digital order, overlays the classical geopolitical world like a web
The Classical Geopolitical World Versus the Digital. An interesting phenomenon is beginning to take shape. Forced by the aforementioned globalization, two blocs are beginning to emerge in the classical, physical world. On one side, the democratic world, consisting of Europe, the US, and allies such as Japan, Canada, Australia, and others. On the other side, a collection of around ten BRICS countries led by China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa. By collaborating in larger alliances, China and the US, as leaders of both blocs, can supply themselves and their allies with raw materials, energy, and technology.
The two blocs are so large that they can each operate reasonably autonomously. Energy-poor China, for instance, can secure ample gas and oil supplies through its alliance with Russia, which is necessary for power plants powering AI. China, however, is eyeing Taiwan, part of the Western bloc, where TSMC plays a crucial role in the global chip market. Energy-poor Europe, thanks to Western alliances, can access oil and gas (from the US, among others) or raw materials. The US holds the strongest position in the Western bloc, as it possesses leading technology companies and top talent, in addition to substantial financial resources and energy. Europe, in turn, provides some top companies for chip manufacturing, such as ASML, ASMI, NXP, and BESI. As AI developments become more significant, cooperation within the blocs will grow closer. Meanwhile, individual superpowers are making great efforts to extract resources, energy, and knowledge from numerous non-affiliated countries. Countries like Ukraine, those in the Middle East, and various African countries are increasingly becoming pawns in the struggle between the two blocs’ members.
AI Developments. Besides geopolitical conflicts, we are seeing developments in the digital world, where AI is leading to rapid advancements and new horizons. Consider how AI can suddenly transform older defence technologies into superior systems with relatively small modifications. A classic F-16 aircraft, for instance, can become much better at evading incoming missiles or firing superior ones. The same applies to tanks and warships. Imagine superior business plans developed for countless companies or policy plans for governments. Or the collapse of industries such as law, translation, accounting, medicine, notaries, and banking, as AI systems can perform their tasks in fractions of a second with better quality and at lower costs. The education sector faces total upheaval, with textbooks becoming obsolete and students needing only to learn how to use AI systems to shape and navigate their lives. What is crucial in this new race is that AI is an energy guzzler. The mind-boggling amounts of calculations required for increasingly sophisticated AI systems consume vast amounts of electricity. This means that the political blocs are doing everything they can to secure as many energy sources as possible.
Shifts in Power. Could it be that real power in the world will increasingly shift from nation-states, including superpowers, to Big Tech conglomerates? What if these organisations continue to present themselves as sufficiently accommodating to citizens and governments, avoiding the risk of being banned or broken up? By agreeing to (limited) oversight and continuing to provide adequate services to citizens and companies, a new world could emerge, one that is essentially governed and managed by Big Tech companies acting as executive organisations for governments, companies and citizens. Provided that Big Tech does not fall into the hands of malicious forces, what could be wrong with this?
The possible end state would then be that the physical world, where people live, work, and holiday, continues to be managed by the current nation-states, along with all the laws and regulations that come with it. Meanwhile, the digital world would provide all non-physical services to citizens and organisations, supported by physical resources where necessary. Banking, insurance, notary services, legal assistance, education, healthcare, travel—everything could be handled by Big Tech companies with their AI systems, and thousands of connected digital platforms.
For example, all educational information could be provided globally by Big Tech companies. They would agree to comply with local laws regarding the quality and content of education in each country. Governments would make arrangements on how AI systems teach students and where and when physical teachers are still needed for support. Local education would increasingly be based on global knowledge and AI systems, translated into each country’s language and culture.
The same applies to healthcare organisations. Big Tech services would adhere to local laws but, thanks to their global reach, could provide identical background services with the help of AI systems in areas such as research, medication, diagnoses, diseases, and knowledge exchange. The same logic applies to many other sectors. Notaries, legal services, healthcare institutions—everything could be managed by services provided by Big Tech companies, while governments set national requirements for the quality and content of what these companies offer in each country.
But the Digital Black Hole Looms. This could all happen in the coming years, and there is no government that can turn this trend around. If managed well, we could perhaps even rid ourselves of much hopeless bureaucracy. However, there is a big caveat: governments will need to actively delve into the effects of digitalisation on society much more than they currently do and, above all, commit seriously to proper regulation and oversight. The bleak scenario is that Big Tech companies through AI systems, will gradually seize more power, leading to the economy being entirely controlled by a handful of gigantic companies, while criminal gangs or states take positions through various manipulations. There is far too little understanding among governments of the developments in the digital world, resulting in no regulation and hardly any oversight. The scenario of a digital black hole will become reality unless governments act quickly to get back on track.
